瑞金新知速递 第十期|宁光教授发现COVID-19空间传播与城际交通相关性

时间:2020-04-20 来源:瑞金医院图书馆作者: 点击:422次

2020年3月14日,内分泌科宁光教授团队在《Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease》杂志在线发表题为“Spatial transmission of COVID-19 via public and private transportation in China“ -- COVID-19的空间传播与城际交通的相关性的研究论文。宁光教授和毕宇教授为共同通讯作者,郑睿智博士后和徐瑜研究员为共同第一作者。


文章分析各地市与武汉的交通便利性及距离远近,与各地市疫情的相关性。结果表明,公共交通在新型冠状病毒肺炎传播中起到重要影响作用,与疫情爆发点距离的远近决定该地疫情的严重程度。


本研究发现离疫情爆发点越近、交通往来越频繁的城市面临疫情蔓延的风险越大。在面对传染性疾病疫情时,有必要采取适当的措施限制人口流动,严防输出与输入,同时加快对疑似病例的筛查确诊并实施隔离。


DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101626


【Abstract】

BACKGROUND: The time of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan coincided with the Chinese Spring Festival, when the largest annual population movement began. Before the lockdown on January 23rd, an estimated 5 million residents left Wuhan. The infected people in incubation period had brought the virus to other cities and person-to-person transmission of the new coronavirus caused the spread of infections across the country.

METHODS: We searched daily flights, buses, and trains from Wuhan to these cities in January. We also obtained straight line distances between Wuhan and these cities. The daily number and the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in each city were obtained from the official website. All the data were logarithmically transformed and the Pearson´s correlation analysis was used to examine correlations of daily frequencies of each transportation methods and the distance between Wuhan and other cities, with the daily number and the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases.

RESULTS:We found a significant and positive association between the frequency of flights, trains, and buses from Wuhan and the daily as well as the cumulative numbers of COVID-19 cases in other cities with progressively increased correlations for trains and buses (all P values < 0.001). The distance between Wuhan and other cities was inversely associated with the numbers of COVID-19 cases in that city (all P values < 0.001), and the correlation became increasingly stronger and went stable after February 1st. 

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicated that imported cases via public transportation played an important role in the spread of COVID-19. The connectivity and distance between the epicenter and the destination are important determinants of transmission risks. Strong preventive measures should be taken in cities with shorter distances and more frequent public transportation connectivity with epicenter in order to contain input and output of the COVID-19 epidemic.



【中文摘要】

背景:武汉封城前恰逢春运时间,估计有500万人离开武汉前往全国各地,对新型冠状病毒肺炎的疫情蔓延产生影响。

方法:本研究通过每日网络实时报告的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情数据获得各地市的每日新增及累计病例数,检索在武汉封城前2周内,由武汉发出到各地市的每日飞机航班数、客运汽车班次数、火车列次数,并获得各地市与武汉的直线距离。

结果:研究发现新型冠状病毒肺炎每日新增病例数和累计病例数,与由武汉发出到达各地市的每日飞机航班数、客运汽车班次数、火车列次数呈正相关,与武汉距各地的直线距离呈负相关。随着疫情的进展上述相关性逐渐增强,并在2月1日后趋于稳定。另外,新型冠状病毒肺炎每日新增病例数和累计病例数与汽车及火车频次的相关性强于飞机航班数。

结论:公共交通在新型冠状病毒肺炎传播中具有重要影响,也是控制传染病蔓延的关键。与新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情爆发点之间的交通越便利,或距离越近的地市应采取更加严格的防范措施。

作者简介

宁光  中国工程院院士,上海交通大学医学院附属瑞金医院院长,上海市内分泌代谢病研究所所长;研究方向:内分泌代谢性疾病的基础与临床研究。 


毕宇芳  上海交通大学医学院附属瑞金医院内分泌代谢科主任医师;上海市内分泌代谢病研究所副所长;研究方向:代谢性疾病的危险因素与早期防控研究。


徐瑜  上海交通大学医学院附属瑞金医院/上海内分泌代谢病研究所研究员;研究方向:心血管代谢性疾病的流行病学研究。 


郑睿智  上海交通大学医学院附属瑞金医院/内分泌代谢病研究所博士后;研究方向:代谢性疾病的流行病学研究。 





原文链接:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTI4MTE5OQ==&mid=2247484167&idx=1&sn=700596b4065bcdf8da5d4740bc2641fe&chksm=9756f747a0217e512e1dd14822fb4f4932b49325876de02be1c785e33c113f144a72fc0f23a9&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=&sharer_sharetime=1587359793173&sharer_shareid=f270f35ab147bcae145eb99ad22478d0&key=ad1327b1c72241bf3bec533997919581fed189768382b9776972a9e14df05d3f0ada8e1873b3746944d6912638d6a36811f908af2fca3dbd3a20a608f1ea21910d6583a0862f93f7a79a64cf83566305&ascene=1&uin=MTk0ODQ2MzM0Mg%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+8.1+x64&version=6209005f&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=AfiZJ%2FHdqslxQQ7nKS6rrZ0%3D&pass_ticket=3Rflpm0HOZGkwMmbmQnlfd1LsfsXTlUH%2BT5m8ZASLFtbhZtSDDdwRtemOvKNvGWc


沪ICP备05052060 版权所有©上海交通大学 通讯地址:上海市东川路800号 邮编:200240 查号台:86-21-54740000

技术支持:上海交大浩然科技股份有限公司